- Although there have been predictions that car production will return to old ways in the middle of the year, today we know that you will have to be patient
- Companies are still producing less, and the chip deficit has also been disrupted by the war in Ukraine. Concerns, however, hope that a breakthrough will come at the end of the year
- Experts say Asian producers have proven more resilient to shortages. Those who choose premium cars also expect shorter cars
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Some experts and analysts have predicted that the shortage of semiconductors will end quite quickly and the supply will stabilize. None of this – the war in Ukraine resulted another production crashand, therefore, problems in receiving orders on time.
– In fact, at the beginning of the year there was a widespread opinion that production could be open by the end of June. Now, however, no one will be tempted to make such assurances. The cars are still missing. There are still vehicles that can normally arrive within two months, and sometimes production can take up to a year, admits Paweł Tuzinek, president of the Association of Automobile Dealers.
For the first four months of this year it was recorded 2.93 million cars, or 14% less than a year earlier.
Today, builders and leasing companies see the light in the tunnel, even as they cautiously anticipate changes. – We see real opportunities for a gradual increase in production in the post-holiday period. The completion date will of course depend on the volume of production, but also on the current impact of orders. We believe that the situation, especially in the fourth quarter, will improve significantly and the waiting time for cars will be shortened – says Dariusz Brodnicki, director of the marketing and brand management department at Volkswagen Financial Services.
Also according to the dealers, the vehicles in the warehouses they may not appear until the end of the year. – Then we expect there will indeed be the surplus of cars that we had become accustomed to before the pandemic. However, it will result not only from the rationalization of supply, but also from a drop in demand. It can be assumed that the rise in interest rates will discourage purchases. And a drop in demand should stabilize prices, assesses the president of ZDS. Currently, according to Carsmile calculations, in practice, car prices have increased by 24%.
What to choose ?
Experts point out that there is no rule as to which cars are delivered fastest. However, they formulate some general rules.
It can be seen that European manufacturers have a harder time with a shortage of chips. Asian brands fare better – says Paweł Tuzinek.
And this is the result of PZPM data, in which the most popular brands among individual customers are Toyota, KIA and Hyundai.
Those who have the most trouble have the most trouble they choose mid-range cars. – Cars requiring as little electronics as possible and fairly poorly equipped must be produced on a good scale. On the other hand, we can also see that the concerns relate primarily to high end carswhere the margin is the highest. As a result, despite the crisis, automotive companies are recording good financial results – admits Wojciech Drzewiecki, President of SAMAR Automotive Market Research Institute.
A new formula for speaking
– We haven’t processed reduced chip orders and new issues keep popping up. As a result of the war, Ukraine lacks other components and resources become more expensive. Following the sanctions against Russia, there is less lithium, nickel and magnesium on the market. Indeed, including since the outbreak of the pandemic 5 to 6 million cars did not enter the European market. This is a very big hole – emphasizes Jakub Faryś, President of the Polish Association of the Automotive Industry (PZPM).
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This situation has changed the purchasing process and the relationship between the salon and the recipient. – Order books are important, but the question is whether the cars will be recovered. The customer comes, orders a car, gets an approximate pick-up date and an approximate price. In exchange for the fact that the car may become more expensive, the customer has the right to forego picking up the ordered car – says Jakub Faryś.
The patient will win
However, resignation does not pay, as those who persevere may come back with a profit. The value of cars is increasing, which is an anomaly in this market. – Cars, which are a rapidly depreciating commodity, are now more expensive or keep the same price. I traded the car a year ago and I guess today it may be worth the same face value – admits the president of ZDS.
Read also : Your car increases in value. The leasing company provides the data
And there are more stories like this. – This is a completely abnormal situation, but used cars are getting more and more expensive, instead of losing. I know the example of a person who collected a car after a few months with a price guarantee. It turned out that it was not much more expensive than used vehicles, which increased significantly at that time – adds Jakub Faryś.
– We thought that the days of the 90s, when you could make money on a car leaving the showroom, would not return. Now we can see how prices are rising on the new market, and therefore also on the second-hand market. It seems that if we want to buy a car, it will not be cheaper. At least in the near future – says Wojciech Drzewiecki.
Grzegorz Kowalczyk, journalist at Business Insider Polska