Transaction prices of single-family homes – Q1 2022 [Raport]

Credit is more difficult to obtain, so real estate prices are no longer galloping.  A correction appeared in Warsaw
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There is no record of runaway rates for single-family homes, according to Bankier.pl data for the first quarter of 2022, provided by the Cenatorium. However, houses are always becoming more expensive than apartments and due to the significant increases recorded in previous quarters on an annual basis, price increases are always in the double digits.

Like every quarter, in collaboration with Cenatorium and “Puls Biznesu”, the editorial staff of Bankier.pl presents the prices of real estate transactions (that is, those for which the apartments are actually sold) in some major Polish cities. We analyze local markets in Warsaw, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Krakow, Poznań, Łódź, Olsztyn and Lublin.

The rise in prices is slowing markedly

The slowdown in the upward trend took place in seven of the eight analyzed voivodship towns. This regularity is best reflected in the situation observed in in Warsaw, where for single-family homes in the first quarter of 2022 was paid an average of nearly 2 percent. less than three months ago. This is the first quarterly cut recorded in the capital in three years. At the end of 2021, there was talk of an increase in the average transaction rate of up to 5%. k/k.

Average Single-Family Home Transaction Prices [w zł/mkw.]

Town

Q1 2021

Q4 2021

Q1 2022

Change of k/k

[w proc.]

Annual change

[w proc.]

Warsaw

8,000

9,030

8,860

-1.9

+10.8

Poznan

5,990

7,022

7,219

+2.8

+20.5

Lodz

4,361

5,018

5,065

+0.9

+16.1

Krakow

6,232

7,141

7,233

+1.3

+16.1

Wroclaw

6,471

7,461

7,747

+3.8

+19.7

Gdansk

6,690

7,697

7,954

+3.3

+18.9

Lublin

5,161

6,132

6,176

+0.7

+19.7

Olsztyn

5,239

6,044

6,244

+3.3

+19.2

Source: Report on housing prices at Bankier.pl, Puls Biznesu and Cenatorium

No reduction was seen in the other medium markets. On each of them, except Gdanskhowever, there is a slowdown in the upward trend recorded continuously for two or even three years.

Houses continue to get more expensive, large apartments have started to get cheaper

In this respect, the situation observed in the market for the sale of single-family homes is fundamentally different from what the beginning of 2022 has seen in the market for the sale of homes – in particular the larger ones.

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While single-family homes rose on a quarterly basis by an average of less than 1 percent. in Lublin and Łódź more than 3 percent in Wrocław and Gdańsk (in Q4 2021 we were talking about increases of 3 to 6% q/q), for the largest apartments with an area greater than 80 m². were paid in the first quarter of 2022 on average from 0.5%. up to 3 percent lower than Q4 2021

In the fourth quarter of 2021, higher average transaction prices for houses than for apartments over 80 meters (per square meter) only occurred in Poznan (+3 percent) i Olsztyn (+14 percent). In the first quarter of 2022, price differentials in these cities widened, and so did in Wroclaw (+4.3%). In Lublin in turn, for houses and apartments with an area of ​​more than 80 m². almost the same was paid on average.

The slowing of the upward trend, as well as the first declines in average transaction prices in the home sales market, are explained by the increasingly limited availability of mortgage loans – with increasing maturities and, in the same time, a decreasing solvency.

If this determinant were to be followed by the market in the coming months, the slowdown in price growth could also continue in the second quarter of 2022, and perhaps – as in recent months in Warsaw – there will also be declines.

As in the article “Creditworthiness melts like snow in May”, Michał Kisiel, an analyst at Bankier.pl, calculated an average of more than 220,000. PLN since March has decreased the solvency of a family with an income of 11, 5 thousand. zloty. Compared to January, the same borrowers can count on lower financing on average by PLN 317,000. zloty.

From 10% up to 20 percent more expensive than last year

In annual terms, average transaction prices for single-family homes are still galloping. This is how increases of 10% should be described. in Warsaw more than 20 percent in Poznan. Due to significant increases in the market for the sale of single family homes in 2020, over two years, we are talking about increases in the average amounts paid for homes ranging from 25%. in Warsaw about 40 percent in Krakow 48 percent each in Gdansk.

If, in turn, we look at the average amounts listed in notarial deeds regarding the sale of single-family homes from a five-year perspective, the most stable market will turn out to be Lodz. Stable, however, this will mean in this case an increase of almost 42%. In Warsaw and Krakow at that time, the price of single-family homes increased by an average of 62%. To Olsztyn in turn, the average amount paid for homes over the past five years has doubled (+110%).

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