Cryptocurrencies. Black predictions for Bitcoin and Ethereum

  • In 2011, after the first bubble burst, bitcoin fell 94%.
  • In 2013, when the second bubble burst, the decline was over 83%.
  • In 2014, after the third bubble, bitcoin fell almost 93%.
  • In 2017, when the fourth bubble burst, the drop was almost 84%.
  • Around midnight from Saturday to Sunday, bitcoin was paid less than $18,000. Today it is less than 20,000

Technical analysts point out that a drop below the $20,000 level set based on the December 2017 highs could herald further declines towards $12,000 and further $8,000 where the uptrend is.

On the Polish market, the price of bitcoin fell below PLN 80,000 at the critical moment over the weekend. Sebastian Seliga, analyst of cryptocurrency platform Zonda, points out that a violation of this value can cause a new wave of selling towards the technical level of 66,256 PLN.

If the price of the most popular cryptocurrency in the world fell back to 12,000 USD, the range of depreciation recorded from November 2021 would exceed 82%, and in the event of a drop to 8,000 USD, up to 88%, this which would be in the range of the massive sales observed in previous years.

The situation is also terrible in the market for ethereum, the second digital currency in the world. Ether is down for the eleventh consecutive week. Even at the end of May, a “coin” cost $2,000, is now worth just over a thousand dollars, but last week it fell below $900, the value previously recorded during the December 2020 pandemic.

In this case, technical analysts remind that a drop below a level of technical support opens the door to further declines towards another support. An Ethereum price of less than a thousand dollars could be the start of a journey towards $800 and $355 more.

Cryptocurrency market veteran Peter Brandt invokes the downtrend theory and believes that when Ethereum reaches its first triangular target of $1,268 after the price fell 20% on June 13, there will now be down 50% to $667.

A major factor in such a large depreciation of “ether” recently was the fact that one of the big cryptocurrency holders, i.e. “the whale”, sold as much as 65,000” coins” and exchanged them for many stablecoins. He did this to pay off almost $73 million in debt to Oasis.app, the DeFi lending platform. Five hours after the first sale, the Oasis borrower went on to sell nearly 28,000 cryptocurrencies to pay off another $32 million in debt.

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The sell-off in the cryptocurrency market is proof that “coins” do not protect against inflation and a decline in the purchasing power of traditional currencies. There are many indications that the previous Bitcoin raid, which in November 2021 took the cryptocurrency to a peak of $68,000, was a “child” of low interest rates and the era of cheap money. . Today, the virtual “coins” are weakening under the pressure of monetary policy tightening from central banks in the United States and Switzerland. Additionally, rising energy prices needed to “mine” cryptocurrencies have led investors to shift capital to other less risky assets.

“Predicting the bottom price seems extremely difficult at the moment, as the market and macro circumstances are not comparable to previous years. $000. If central banks want to signal a more hawkish approach to the conduct of monetary policy, this could lead to further disruptions in the digital asset market” – reads the report by economists XTB.

However, the group of investors and analysts optimistic about bitcoin’s long-term prospects is not diminishing. Mike Novogratz, president of Galaxy Digital, points out that the cryptocurrencies have yet to announce their final surrender and that their community is resilient, even if at the moment “there is no cavalry to trigger a revival in form. of V”.“.

Many market participants have high hopes of halving, i.e. limiting the supply of new bitcoins and halving the reward to “miners” for mined “coins”. The halving occurs on average every 4 years. Bitcoin price tends to rise “by the event”, shortly before the halving, and peak about a year after. The last halving took place in the spring of 2020, and the next should be expected in the first quarter of 2024.

Capital.com research has shown that after each halving, bitcoin quotes entered a 12-15 month bull market. In the case of the last three events, which took place in 2012, 2016 and 2020, the price of the cryptocurrency increased by 9,915%, 2,949% respectively. and 665 percent

An average estimate of forecasts presented in a panel of 35 analysts surveyed by Finder in April this year shows that by December 31, 2030, the price of one bitcoin “coin” will rise to $420,240.

Heart palpitating MicroStrategy Founder and CEO Michael Saylor argues that if bitcoin doesn’t go bankrupt (and rule it out), it could hit the $1 million price point. It is picked up by ARK Invest analyst Yassine Elmandjra, who predicted in mid-January 2022 that bitcoin would earn $1 million in 2030.

Identical are the predictions of Alex Faliushin, Founder and CEO of CoinLoan, who sees the million for 8-year bitcoin as possible, provided strong cryptocurrency regulations are created. As a result, more institutional money will be attracted to the digital currency market.

– Bitcoin could reach the million dollar level in 2030, especially since many funds are just starting to pay attention to it, and some of them, despite their great intentions, are unable to buy it in due to insufficient regulation – Faliushin told Capital.com.

Jacek Brzeski

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